Arya News - Government stimulus, such as vouchers and a 2.05 billion yuan lottery, had a limited overall impact. It boosted specific sectors but failed to significantly lift discretionary spending, like cinema.
BEIJING – China’s longest-ever Spring Festival holiday saw overall spending and traveller numbers hit record highs, but Chinese consumers remained prudent despite the government’s efforts to boost domestic spending.
The nine-day holiday from Feb 15 to Feb 23 saw domestic tourism spending hit 803.5 billion yuan (S$147.7 billion) – up nearly 126.5 billion yuan from 2025, according to data released by the Ministry of Culture and Tourism on Feb 24. The country’s Chinese New Year holiday is usually seven days, but was extended to eight days in 2024.
But analysts are sceptical that spending can be sustained after the nine-day celebrations are over, as each person spent an average of 150 yuan a day during the break, down from the daily average of 168 yuan in 2025.
Across the nine days, 596 million domestic trips were made nationwide, an increase of 95 million from 2025.
Some popular tourist destinations such as Chengdu’s Dujiangyan Scenic Area had to impose crowd-control limits even on the final day of the holiday, and others such as Sichuan province’s Jiuzhaigou National Park were reportedly fully packed the day after the holiday ended.
Noting that per-person spending slipped 0.23 per cent compared with the 2025 holiday, Moody’s Analytics economist Sarah Tan said this suggests households are still budget-conscious about travel and experiences during special occasions like the Spring Festival.
“For that reason, we’re sceptical that the holiday burst will translate into sustained spending growth,” said Ms Tan, who covers China’s economy.
In a note on Feb 25, Goldman Sachs said that tourism revenue per head was 8.8 per cent below pre-pandemic levels and was 2.6 per cent weaker than China’s National Day Golden Week in October 2025.
This comes despite Beijing’s push to stimulate domestic spending through a range of policy measures rolled out ahead of the holiday. The authorities had allocated about 2.05 billion yuan to consumption-stimulating programmes such as vouchers, subsidies and digital red packet incentives aimed at boosting retail and consumption activity.
A key initiative was a pilot “invoice lottery” launched in 50 cities, with more than one billion yuan in prize money set aside for distribution during the nine-day break. Consumers who spent 100 yuan or more on shopping, dining, tourism or accommodation in participating cities could submit their invoices for a chance to win cash prizes of up to 800 yuan.
The Ministry of Commerce plans to expand the prize pool to 10 billion yuan over a longer six-month period.
Mr Gary Ng, a senior economist at Natixis in Hong Kong, said the policy measures could offer only limited help, as 2.05 billion yuan makes up just 0.0015 per cent of China’s gross domestic product (GDP) and translates to 1.46 yuan per person.
“Local governments have a mandate to support consumption, but they lack the fiscal capacity for larger-scale measures,” said Mr Ng.
China’s Spring Festival travel rush, known as chunyun , is widely used as a barometer of consumer sentiment and economic vitality. It is often dubbed the world’s largest annual human migration as millions travel for leisure or to visit families.
The chunyun in 2026 runs for 40 days from Feb 2 to March 13. The authorities have estimated that nearly 9.5 billion cross-regional trips will be made during this period.
Average daily sales at major retail and catering enterprises rose 8.6 per cent in the first four days of the 2026 holiday, compared with the same period in 2025, according to data by the Ministry of Commerce.
In terms of consumer goods sales, state media reported smart wearables such as AI-enabled glasses and health monitors saw solid growth, supported in part by government trade-in subsidies and targeted consumption incentives.
In contrast, cinema attendance – typically a holiday highlight – fell to 120 million moviegoers, down from a record 187 million in 2025 in the first year-on-year decline since 2022. Box office takings were also down compared with 2025, partly due to the lack of a mega blockbuster like Ne Zha 2.
Analysts said the divergence suggests that policy support helped lift segments directly targeted by subsidies, while demand for discretionary services such as cinema remained softer.
Beyond traditional tourism hot spots, science and technology museums saw strong footfall with 3.5 million visits during the holiday, up from three million in 2025, reflecting growing public interest in innovation-themed activities.
The emphasis on science popularisation aligns with Beijing’s broader push for technological self-reliance amid intensifying China-US competition.
Chinese consumers have also engaged in what Chinese state media called a “gold rush” over the holiday, as many purchased gold jewellery and bullion for weddings and gift-giving despite historically high prices surpassing US$5,100 per ounce.
At a key annual policy meeting in December 2025, Chinese leaders made boosting domestic demand, in particular household consumption, their top economic priority for a second year running.
China’s economy slowed in the final quarter of 2025 to its weakest pace since early 2023, even as it met its goal of 5 per cent GDP growth for the year.
Attention will now turn to the upcoming Two Sessions from March 4, when Beijing will not only announce its annual growth targets but will also publish the 15th Five-Year Plan, outlining policy objectives for 2026 to 2030.
Observers believe that China’s growth will moderate in 2026, with the World Bank forecasting 4.4 per cent and the International Monetary Fund projecting 4.5 per cent.
Ms Erica Tay, director of macro research at Maybank, said the momentum in the first quarter of 2026 may turn out less sluggish than expected, partly due to recent changes in US trade policy.
A recent US Supreme Court ruling struck down many of US President Donald Trump’s so-called Liberation Day tariffs, and a new tariff of 10 per cent on most global imports went into effect on Feb 24.
The switch to a 10 per cent global tariff has significantly lowered the effective duties faced by Chinese exports compared with pre-ruling levels, said Ms Tay.
“Given the risk that the tariff landscape may yet change down the road, Chinese shippers are likely to rush and front-load their exports to the US, while the going is good,” she added.